Wednesday, July 07, 2004

So, the Iranians are plotting to kill Americans in Iraq.

How's this going to play out? There'll probably be diplomatic pressure before November 2. After? Well, it's hard to say. If America can keep Iraq free and on a path to secular, pluralist republicanism, Iraq will become this beacon to the rest of the Arab world. Unfortunately, Iraq has the Wahabbis to the South, Ba'athists to the North, and the Mullahs to the east. Oh, and the Wahhabis sponsor radicalism, the Ba'athists probably have some of Saddam's WMD arsenal, and the Mullahs are working feverishly on The Islamic Bomb (TM).

Of course, the Saudi Royal Family may end up slaughtered in the streets, eaten by the alligator it tried to buy off. The ensuing chaos would take those guys out of the game for a while, and the departure of all the foreign workers - sorry, dirty kufrs - would certainly hamstring the inflow of oil money for a while.

Also, Boy Assad is just not his father, and has to worry about internal security. This would increasingly be a problem as Iraq grows in freedom and wealth. He might not be able to engage in foreign adventures, simply because he can't afford the risk.

Finally, we have the Mullahs. They're building their nukes, they're setting off bombs in Iraq. They have a populace that's increasingly tired of them.

Oh, one more thing. In case you didn't notice, the Intefada is over and Arafat lost. The wall the Israelis are building has cut violence to almost nothing where it's been completed. The Palestinians now have to make a choice between stewing in their own psychotic juices or joining the community of nations - the distraction of Jew-killing is increasingly unavailable.

So that old canard - fix the Israeli/Palestinian problem before anything else - is now off the table. Iraq now has regular diplomatic relations with the US. This is the point in time when one of the Islamic world's more psychotic nations has been caught in the process of trying to kill Americans.

Their timing could not have been worse.

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